After a long sequence of not doing the right thing-s, our western world is headed if not down then lower. " Down" is probably too sudden relative to how history evolves and the preparedness of the Chinese, or lack thereof.
The "low," as I see it, can be described in terms of under-, and un-employment, but one can think of many other metrics.
In the US, even if the ever shifting targets of the (now) $700Bn TARP are reached, how does this address the more real problem of jobs creation? For the time being, the voices one can hear, from the House Speaker Pelosi to über-investor Buffet, sound optimistic about the financial prospects of the system and pessimistic about jobs.
So, one gets the feeling that the government has extricated itself from several of the responsibilities associated with running the state. We've come to rely on Wall Street to sort out most society decision-making needs--from pensions to child-care, from environment to efficient allocation of resources, from war to peace.
That free markets have more in common with flea markets than financial markets is a fact we painfully reckon with periodically. And, re-adjusting for such facts, read bailing the system out, is probably a tax on our beliefs (e.g. in smaller government) and hope that the next bubble will rescue ME. Somehow, the growing problem with Wall Street is that it needs more money each time it's crying for rescue.
Bush tried to privatize social security for he most probably learned about the real problem in the economy 8 years ago to these days. Failing to privatize social security, and succeeding only moderately to stimulate jobs growth with the Iraq War, he had given free hand to the bankers.
Yet, for people like us, the recession started in 2000-2001. By “us” I mean people who have not worked in: defense, real estate, healthcare (insurance, included), banking. Now, one can only wish the military Keynesianism had been applied towards national infrastructures instead of sand castles in Iraq…
Most probably, the upcoming elections will effect a kind of Keynesianism different from the one characterizing the last 8 years. If this is going to be the case, healthcare automation and alternative energy would be two areas where bubblets, if not bubbles, are likely to develop.
As a side issue, the huge size of our economic/financial actors has dealt these days' near fatal blow to our system, yet nobody seems to notice that most all solutions lead to even further size increases and fewer players.
The "low," as I see it, can be described in terms of under-, and un-employment, but one can think of many other metrics.
In the US, even if the ever shifting targets of the (now) $700Bn TARP are reached, how does this address the more real problem of jobs creation? For the time being, the voices one can hear, from the House Speaker Pelosi to über-investor Buffet, sound optimistic about the financial prospects of the system and pessimistic about jobs.
So, one gets the feeling that the government has extricated itself from several of the responsibilities associated with running the state. We've come to rely on Wall Street to sort out most society decision-making needs--from pensions to child-care, from environment to efficient allocation of resources, from war to peace.
That free markets have more in common with flea markets than financial markets is a fact we painfully reckon with periodically. And, re-adjusting for such facts, read bailing the system out, is probably a tax on our beliefs (e.g. in smaller government) and hope that the next bubble will rescue ME. Somehow, the growing problem with Wall Street is that it needs more money each time it's crying for rescue.
Bush tried to privatize social security for he most probably learned about the real problem in the economy 8 years ago to these days. Failing to privatize social security, and succeeding only moderately to stimulate jobs growth with the Iraq War, he had given free hand to the bankers.
Yet, for people like us, the recession started in 2000-2001. By “us” I mean people who have not worked in: defense, real estate, healthcare (insurance, included), banking. Now, one can only wish the military Keynesianism had been applied towards national infrastructures instead of sand castles in Iraq…
Most probably, the upcoming elections will effect a kind of Keynesianism different from the one characterizing the last 8 years. If this is going to be the case, healthcare automation and alternative energy would be two areas where bubblets, if not bubbles, are likely to develop.
As a side issue, the huge size of our economic/financial actors has dealt these days' near fatal blow to our system, yet nobody seems to notice that most all solutions lead to even further size increases and fewer players.
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1 comment:
Working America has seen an economic crisis coming since as early as 2001. What did we experience? First it was internal corporate reorganizations more than once a year. Then it was our coworkers posting the daily insider trading web news in the break room bulletin board. Then it was the collapse of telecom stocks, and people who thought they had $750K in their 401Ks suddenly had $75K and our stock options were worth less than a losing lottery ticket. Then we saw the mass layoffs of 2001-2003. Then we saw the high tech jobs transferred out of the US and the H1-Bs taking away the jobs of people over 50. Then the purchase of a home became unaffordable for a young couple or a single person. Then we visited the houses our acquaintances lived in and wondered, "how can anyone with that occupation afford that house?" In the fall of 2005 we saw virtually no job openings, and now we have to go from one temporary contract to another. People who used to work or socialize together are now spread out in Texas, Michigan, Boston, midwestern colleges, or the West Coast. Working people were not surprised at the Wall Street shenanigans; we all witnessed the telco shenanigans. Accountants and personal finance websites were warning us of trouble ahead, of home price declines and migrations of professional people out of the expensive cities. Working America knew a crisis was coming, but the leaders would not listen and still refuse to listen. We need localization (stable, permanent jobs with companies having a stable presence and sense of civic responsibility in local neighborhoods), not globalization. Labor unions are just about the only source of real stability people have.
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