my takes on the short and medium term future

There is a lot of talk about the upward gyrations in prices and one can easily look for answers in whatever quarter suits one's taste. Here in the US, the loudest voice seems to attribute this to the growth in demand from places like China and India. Across the Atlantic, speculation is considered as source if the problem.

Recently, I wrote the following in response to a question posted on LinkedIn by a fellow professional (Would you agree with these predictions).

In the best case scenario, we are one to two years away from an unqualified uptrend.

Internationally speaking, follow: Iran-Israel-NATO, the ability and willingness of the Chinese to maintain growth in today's terms.

In the US, follow: elections, war(s) cost/debt, interest rates vs. inflation, policy, institutional restructuring, immigration.

Upon deciding which way the above variables are likely to swing, the particular answers to your questions come closer to one's reach. Right now, it is not the intrinsic state of any one economy that creates as much problem as the general level of uncertainty.

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